Will white-collar jobs disappear in the AI revolution? Kazuhiko Toyama questions the “true nature of work.”
三菱電機、パナソニックホールディングスなど、大手企業でも大規模なリストラが相次いでいる。背景には、AI（人工知能）の進化による働き方の地殻変動もあると指摘されている。どんな変化が起きるのか。「ホワイトカラー消滅」に警鐘をならす日本共創プラットフォーム（JPiX）会長の冨山和彦さんに聞いた。
At major corporations such as Mitsubishi Electric and Panasonic Holdings, large-scale restructuring has been occurring one after another. In the background, it is pointed out that the evolution of AI (artificial intelligence) is also causing a seismic shift in the way people work. What kinds of changes are taking place? We spoke with Kazuhiko Toyama, chairman of Japan Industrial Solutions Platform (JPiX), who warns of the “disappearance of white-collar jobs.”
――AIの浸透でホワイトカラーは消滅するのでしょうか。
—Will white-collar jobs disappear as AI becomes more widespread?
短期的には、プログラマーなどのIT系ホワイトカラーの仕事が最も早くAIに代替されるでしょう。次いで、総務や営業のバックオフィス（営業支援・管理）など、「ルールベース」で動いている仕事です。
会計士や弁護士であっても、過去の判例や学説を探すような2次情報の検索・分析は完全にAIの独壇場になります。また、会社で人数が多い「中間管理職」も、AIと競合するため非常に厳しい立場に立たされます。
In the short term, IT-related white-collar jobs—such as programmers—are likely to be the first to be replaced by AI.
Next will be roles that operate on a “rule-based” basis, such as back-office functions in general affairs and sales (sales support and administration).
Even for professionals like accountants and lawyers, tasks involving the search and analysis of secondary information—such as past case law and academic theories—will become entirely dominated by AI.
In addition, middle management positions, which tend to be numerous within companies, will face a very difficult situation as they increasingly compete with AI.
――では、AI時代に生き残れるのはどのような働き手なのでしょうか？
大きく分けて二つです。一つは、AIを「スーパー部下」として使いこなし、プロンプト（指示）を出してグローバルな判断、的確な意思決定ができる一握りの「優秀なボス」。もう一つは、現場で自らの身体と感情、技能を使って「1次情報」を取りに行くブルーカラー的な働き手です。対面で泥臭く顧客を口説き落とす感情労働性の高い営業職、カウンセリング能力が求められる経営コンサルタントなどもこれに当たります。
米国の「ブルーカラービリオネア」が日本にも?
—Then, what kind of workers will survive in the age of AI?
Broadly speaking, there are two types.
One is a small group of “excellent bosses” who can use AI as a “super subordinate,” give effective prompts (instructions), and make global judgments and sound decisions.
The other is blue-collar–type workers who go into the field and obtain “primary information” using their own bodies, emotions, and skills.
This includes sales roles with a strong emotional labor component—such as persuading clients face-to-face in a hands-on, persistent way—as well as management consultants who require strong counseling abilities.
Will “blue-collar billionaires” in the United States emerge in Japan as well?
――米国では大卒でもブルーカラーを目指す人が増えていて、中でも高収入を得ている「ブルーカラービリオネア」が話題です。日本もそうなるでしょうか。
確実になります。むしろ日本は米国以上に深刻な人手不足ですから、需要と供給のバランスから必然的に現場仕事の賃金はさらに上がります。すでに建設現場の高度な重機オペレーター、高所作業員などは、年収1千万円を超えてきています。観光業なども単価が上がり、今後は資格などを持つエッセンシャル産業やブルーカラーとホワイトカラーの中間領域の仕事で特殊な資格、技術を持つ人びとが新たな「中産階級」を形成していくでしょう。
—In the United States, even college graduates are increasingly aiming for blue-collar jobs, and “blue-collar billionaires” earning high incomes have become a hot topic.
Will Japan follow the same path?
It certainly will.
In fact, Japan faces an even more severe labor shortage than the United States, so from a supply–demand perspective, wages for on-site work will inevitably rise further.
Already, highly skilled heavy machinery operators at construction sites and high-altitude workers are earning annual incomes exceeding 10 million yen.
In sectors such as tourism, unit prices are also increasing, and going forward, people with specialized qualifications and technical skills—working in essential industries or in roles that lie between blue-collar and white-collar—are likely to form a new “middle class.”
—The media is also being significantly affected by AI.
What will happen to the work of journalists?
Journalists who can go out into the field and gather exclusive scoops—primary information—through their own efforts will continue to be needed.
While AI can instantly analyze past articles and data, it cannot obtain new primary information.
On the other hand, desk work such as structuring and editing articles, as well as managerial roles, will eventually be replaceable by AI.
The same applies to the consulting industry. It is advisable to return to the field and focus on obtaining exclusive, firsthand information.
――社会構造が劇的に変わる中で、今の日本の大学教育は機能するでしょうか？
医学部、獣医学部、薬学部など実学を教える学部以外はほとんど機能していません。特にこの20年で膨張した私立文系は、いわば「不要になるホワイトカラーの大量生産システム」になってしまっています。日本の大学の半分は、高尚な学問ごっこをやめ、欧州のような「技能訓練型（職業学校）」へ転換すべきです。本来、人間がより良く生きるためのリベラルアーツ（教養）とは、そもそも正解がない。仕事で対峙（たいじ）する極限の人間関係、ジレンマ、介護現場で感じる死生観などを通して身についていくものです。大学の教室でカントやシェークスピアを習っただけで簡単に身につくものではありません。
—As social structures change dramatically, will Japan’s current university education system continue to function?
With the exception of faculties that teach practical disciplines—such as medicine, veterinary science, and pharmacy—most are not functioning effectively.
In particular, private humanities programs that have expanded over the past 20 years have, in effect, become a “mass-production system for white-collar workers who may no longer be needed.”
Roughly half of Japan’s universities should abandon the pretense of lofty academic pursuits and shift toward vocational, skills-based training, as seen in parts of Europe.
True liberal arts—education aimed at helping people live better lives—do not have clear-cut answers to begin with. They are developed through confronting real-world human relationships, dilemmas faced in work, and reflections on life and death, such as those encountered in caregiving settings. They are not something that can be easily acquired simply by studying thinkers like Immanuel Kant or William Shakespeare in a university classroom.
――企業の採用も変わるでしょうか。
「白紙の従順な学生を新卒で一括採用し、一生面倒を見る」という終身年功モデルは完全に崩壊します。会社側もスキルや主体性のない学生を抱え込む余裕はありません。これからは学生の側も「最初の3～4年は給料をもらいながら職業訓練を受ける場」と割り切り、AIに代替されないスキルを身につけたら、自分で次のキャリアとしてスタートアップなどを切り開いていく時代になります。
—Will corporate hiring practices also change?
The lifetime employment model—where companies hire blank-slate, obedient graduates in bulk and take care of them for life—will completely collapse. Companies no longer have the capacity to take on students who lack skills or initiative.
From now on, students themselves should view their first three to four years as a period of vocational training while earning a salary. Once they acquire skills that cannot be replaced by AI, they will move on to carve out their next careers on their own, such as by joining or launching startups.